Rob Fraser wrote:
> Any idea when the prices of the above units will become "reasonable"
> Hopefully like the depreciation we saw in the Ultra 5 and 10 market? I
> was asked last night and I had no idea so I said I'd check here with you
> guys for your opinions. I don't see them coming down soon but I'm no
> economist.
>
> Respects and have a good weekend,
>
> Rob
>
>
When I had a few beers one night, I decided to estimate the future
prices of X1195A CPUs, based on past prices, and an exponential fit
(which seemed the most logical).
That seemed to work pretty accurately for some years,
http://groups.google.co.uk/group/com...9927ddf4fcd4eb http://groups.google.com/group/comp....4a454c1e043268
Basically, it is based on the following equation:
price_now = price_t_months_ago * exp(- k t)
k=0.08
Assuming the price at now is 1.0, then the price over the next 120
months (10 years), is estimated to be as below. Hence about half their
current cost in 8-9 months, and about a quarter of there current cost in
17-18 months.
First column is months from now. Second column is the fraction of the
current cost.
Flames to /dev/null!!!
In[8]:= TableForm[ Table[{t,Exp[-0.08 t]},{t,0,120}]]
Out[8]//TableForm= 0 1
1 0.923116
2 0.852144
3 0.786628
4 0.726149
5 0.67032
6 0.618783
7 0.571209
8 0.527292
9 0.486752
10 0.449329
11 0.414783
12 0.382893
13 0.353455
14 0.32628
15 0.301194
16 0.278037
17 0.256661
18 0.236928
19 0.218712
20 0.201897
21 0.186374
22 0.172045
23 0.158817
24 0.146607
25 0.135335
26 0.12493
27 0.115325
28 0.106459
29 0.0982736
30 0.090718
31 0.0837432
32 0.0773047
33 0.0713613
34 0.0658748
35 0.0608101
36 0.0561348
37 0.0518189
38 0.0478349
39 0.0441572
40 0.0407622
41 0.0376283
42 0.0347353
43 0.0320647
44 0.0295994
45 0.0273237
46 0.025223
47 0.0232837
48 0.0214936
49 0.0198411
50 0.0183156
51 0.0169075
52 0.0156076
53 0.0144076
54 0.0132999
55 0.0122773
56 0.0113334
57 0.0104621
58 0.0096577
59 0.00891518
60 0.00822975
61 0.00759701
62 0.00701293
63 0.00647375
64 0.00597602
65 0.00551656
66 0.00509243
67 0.00470091
68 0.00433948
69 0.00400585
70 0.00369786
71 0.00341356
72 0.00315111
73 0.00290884
74 0.0026852
75 0.00247875
76 0.00228818
77 0.00211225
78 0.00194986
79 0.00179994
80 0.00166156
81 0.00153381
82 0.00141589
83 0.00130703
84 0.00120654
85 0.00111378
86 0.00102814
87 0.000949097
88 0.000876127
89 0.000808767
90 0.000746586
91 0.000689186
92 0.000636198
93 0.000587285
94 0.000542133
95 0.000500451
96 0.000461975
97 0.000426457
98 0.000393669
99 0.000363402
100 0.000335463
101 0.000309671
102 0.000285862
103 0.000263884
104 0.000243596
105 0.000224867
106 0.000207579
107 0.000191619
108 0.000176887
109 0.000163287
110 0.000150733
111 0.000139144
112 0.000128446
113 0.000118571
114 0.000109455
115 0.000101039
116 0.0000932711
117 0.0000861001
118 0.0000794804
119 0.0000733697
120 0.0000677287